Tuesday, 19 October 2010

Copper rises on weak dollar, pullback seen

Copper rose in synch with precious metals on Tuesday, as the euro jumped versus the dollar and after Japan unexpectedly lowered interest rates, raising expectations of further economic stimulus in other major economies.

Benchmark copper for three-months delivery on the London Metal Exchange traded at $8,105 a tonne at 0949 GMT from a close of $8,064 on Monday.

"Further dollar weakness is certainly driving things and that is really a response to strengthening euro," Daniel Brebner, analyst at Deutsche Bank, said. "The market is reacting to further monetary accommodation out of Japan.

"We've seen very strong pricing in the precious metals and there's a bit of a sympathetic move on the base metals complex because they do react to macroeconomic policy."

The Bank of Japan on Tuesday pledged to pump more funds into the struggling economy and keep interest rates virtually at zero, surprising markets and stealing a march on the Federal Reserve in providing a fresh dose of economic stimulus.

The dollar index hit an 8 1/2-month low against a currency basket as demand for the euro put the US currency under broad selling pressure.

Metals tend to benefit as the dollar falls, because a weaker dollar makes them cheaper for holders of other currencies.

Gold rallied to an all-time high, lifting silver to its highest in 30 years as worries about the eurozone economy highlighted bullion's perceived safe-haven appeal.

Markets in China, the world's top consumer of base metals, are closed until Friday for National Day holidays.

Looking ahead Tuesday's macro calendar, the Redbook weekly US retail sales index and the ISM non-manufacturing index are due later.

Investors will also look out for a key jobs report later this week for further clues on the pace of recovery in the world's largest economy.

If the economic data remains lacklustre, it will likely reinforce bets that the US Federal Reserve will embark on more quantitative easing, which should erode dollar values further and bolster the appeal of metals as a hedge against inflation.

Copper, used in power and construction, is expected to retrace to $7,980, as a small double-top formed around $8,178 per tonne.

"This week should be fairly quiet with China out. Prices are running hard, and to me look a little frothy. Once the excitement about LME Week fades I think we'll see selling," said Ben Westmore, commodities economist at National Australia Bank.

"Copper at $8,000 is just too high to justify from a fundamental perspective. These levels will be hit on more sustainable basis mid to late next year."

Each year the metals industry assembles in London around the second week in October for a series of conferences, meetings and receptions that surround the event.

Market balances in copper have been tightening for many months now, with stocks in LME warehouses tumbling more than 30 per cent since the middle of February. Tuesday's data showed LME stocks down 350 tonnes to 374,100 tonnes.

Among other metals, aluminium traded at $2,355.25 a tonne, down from Monday's close of $2,363.

Earlier, trade was disrupted by an input error resulting in the cancellation of more than 200 lots of aluminium. Prices of aluminium fell by more than 3 percent for a few seconds before recovering after what traders described as a "big figure typo."

Battery material lead traded at $2,283.50 from $2,277, while stainless steel ingredient nickel traded at $24,100 versus $24,140.

Tin traded at $25,450 versus $25,200 and zinc at $2,237 versus $2,230 at the close on Monday.


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